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Mission Moratorium Likely to Increase Rents, Not Likely to Stop Gentrification Says SF Chief Economist

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San Francisco's chief economist has found no evidence that a temporary moratorium on market-rate construction in the Mission would do anything to stop evictions or slow gentrification, according to an early copy of a report obtained by the San Francisco Business Times. The report, which is scheduled to be released today, actually finds that a moratorium would lead to higher housing prices across the city while having a limited impact on the creation of new affordable housing. Moratorium advocates want market-rate housing halted in order to put aside sites for below-market-rate buildings.

The moratorium, which will hit November's ballot as Proposition I, would hold up the creation of 752 to 807 new units of housing for an average of 10 to 17 months, according to the report. It's estimated that 97 to 131 below-market-rate units that are part of market-rate projects would be affected, and rents could rise $8 per month thanks to the moratorium. If the new housing now proposed for the Mission was blocked permanently, future renters and homeowners could expect to pay $1,794 more per year for housing.

The report also looks specifically at the state of housing and gentrification in the Mission over the past few years. It says 5,000 new residents have flocked to the Mission every year between 2009 and 2013, which is a huge increase. The report says the housing supply grew by 193 units per year between 2000 and 2010 and the percentage of upper income residents has increased far more rapidly in the Mission than in other areas of the city, despite low production of new housing.

· Mission Moratorium Won't Help Affordable Housing Strife, City Report Finds [SF Business Times]
· November Ballot Promises to be Referendum on Housing Wars [Curbed SF]