There are currently around 831 new units available for sale in San Francisco, with 529 more set to hit the market by the end of the year, according to an in-depth look by Vanguard Properties at the current and upcoming supply of new housing in the city. While there won't be a flood of new condos coming on the market in the second half of 2015, there are 2,390 new rental units set to begin leasing in the third and fourth quarters, with the largest being the Solaire in the Transbay District, with 472 units, and Potrero1010 in Potrero Hill, with 453.
There are 38,066 new residential units currently approved in San Francisco for future development. Those figures, of course, include new megaprojects like the San Francisco Shipyard in Hunters Point and Lennar Urban's plans for Treasure Island, but they also include 2,360 units in Dogpatch, 1,560 in SoMa, and 520 in Mission Bay. Another 19,210 units are currently under review. In the Mission, where development is the topic of the moment and the moratorium on market-rate housing looms ahead on the November ballot, there are only 141 units currently approved but another 1,559 under review. Across the entire city, an additional 6,533 units are in conceptual planning stages.
All of those planned and under-review units average out to more than 3,600 new housing units per year for the city over the next seven years, a big jump up from most of the previous 20 years, when the average per year was just 1,743. This heightened pace, if we meet it, will put the city within sight of Mayor Ed Lee's goal of producing 30,000 new or rehabilitated units between 2014 and 2020. Factoring in the 3,514 units the city added in 2014 (and the planned rehab of 4,575 Housing Authority units), we're roughly on track to add or rehab 29,741 units through the end of 2020. (Lee's goal also targets 10,000 of those units as affordable, but Vanguard's report doesn't break out affordable units, so we remain a bit in the dark on that one.)
Of course, if the city continues getting 10,000 or more new residents per year, as it has over the past few years, those numbers may mean that the housing shortage will still continue to grow.
· 453-Unit Potrero Rental Complex Will Start Leasing This Fall [Curbed SF]
· November Ballot Promises to Be Referendum on Housing Wars [Curbed SF]
·SF Added More New Housing in 2014 Than It Has in 20 Years [Curbed SF]
·Grand Jury Looks into Feasibility of Mayor's 30,000-Unit Goal [SF Examiner]
· SF's Population Is Growing Way Faster Than Its Housing Stock [Curbed SF]