The Bayview has seen the highest levels of home price appreciation over the past four years, according to new research from Paragon Real Estate. Prices have jumped 75 percent there since 2011, but they are still 12 percent below their 2006 peak levels. The last housing crash hit Bayview hard, but now, with some of the most affordable housing the in the city, the neighborhood is recovering. It is followed closely by the Inner Mission, where homes are up 63 percent since 2010 and 46 percent since their 2007 previous peak. Paragon explains that, not surprisingly, the Mission's big jump is being fueled by gentrification, new condos and tech money.
Bernal Heights, where bidding wars are commonplace, comes in third on the list of neighborhoods with the most appreciation. Its prices are up 57 percent since 2010 and 24 percent since 2007, largely because it has become a family-friendly alternative to the very pricey Noe Valley.
The city's traditionally expensive neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Russian Hill and St. Francis Wood have also all seen price jumps, but their appreciation levels have come in closer to 40 percent, which is near the city's overall increase of 44 percent over the past few years. However, because those neighborhoods were so expensive to begin with, they have still seen large price jumps. For example, a theoretical "median" house in Pacific or Presidio Heights would cost about $1.36 million more today than it would have three to four years ago.
Paragon points out that, despite the big home appreciation values, mortgage interest rates are 35 percent percent lower than they were back in 2007. Therefore, the current cost of housing with those rates factored in as about 12 percent lower now than it was at the height of the last surge.
· San Francisco Real Estate Appreciation Rates by Neighborhood [Paragon Real Estate]