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Bonkers SF Housing Market Downshifts to Semi-Bonkers

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The madness that was the San Francisco housing market in the first half of the year seems to have finally cooled down just a bit, according to Paragon Real Estate's latest market report. Of course, cooling down for San Francisco means that homes are receiving two or three offers instead of five or ten and some neighborhoods are seeing plateaus in their very high prices. The median home price continued to hover around the $1 million mark, and 80 percent of houses and 66 percent of condos sold above asking. Some sellers, however, appeared to be pushing the limits of pricing, and the number of expired or withdrawn listings from August through October was up 18 percent over last year.

One of the strongest points in the market was at its top end, at the $2 million+ price point. October boasted the biggest month ever for sales at that price point with 61, a figure that easily topped the previous high point. It was also a strong month for high-end condos, with 55 sales above $1.5 million (and that's not counting the very high-end Lumina, where buyers snapped up condos but sales won't officially close until construction ends next year). Luxury home sales varied widely in price per square based on neighborhood, going from $816 in the St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill area way up to $1,351 per square in Telegraph and Russian hills. Condos saw similar variation, starting at $849 per square in the Hayes Valley/NoPa section of town and heading up to $1,336 in South Beach, Yerba Buena, and Mission Bay.

One of the main reasons for San Francisco's rampant rise in prices over the past couple of years has been a consistent lack of inventory. Inventory remained low throughout the fall, with just a two-month supply, although that number was up slightly since spring. The next big test for the housing market will come after the winter lull. It is usually in spring when San Francisco sees its biggest home price rises. Can the market handle another big surge in 2015?

· Autumn Real Estate Market Dynamics [Paragon Real Estate]
· Previous Coverage of Lumina [Curbed SF]
· SF Home Prices Surpass 2007 Levels, Hit Record High [Curbed SF]
· Why Are There So Few Homes for Sale in San Francisco? [Curbed SF]