The heart of San Francisco's condo market has been shifting south for some time, but now it may be headed even further down toward the city's lower borders. A new report from Polaris Pacific (PDF) examines the market from every angle, focusing on a breakdown of the city by real estate district, and finds that the biggest changes are happening in District 10, home to neighborhoods like the Bayview, Hunter's Point, the Excelsior, and Portola. The district that covers Pacific Heights, the Marina, and Cow Hollow remained on top for median condo sales price (with a median of $1.381M), but District 10 saw by far the biggest jump in median price, with a 56.4 percent gain that brought the median up to $552K. District 10 also saw a boost in condo availability, with a 36.4 percent rise in condo resales. As big developments like the SF Shipyard in Hunter's Point really swing into gear, expect condo activity in District 10 to get even hotter.
Although District 10's condo supply is booming, the rest of the city saw major drops in inventory. There was a 7.7 percent drop in condo resales from last year, a decrease Polaris Pacific attributes to a lack of condos available, not demand. There were only 120 new condos completed in 2013 compared with the 2,069 new condos that came on the market at its 2008 peak. Condos (new or resale) are now on the market for an average of only 33 days, well below the 60-day benchmark that signals a balanced market. This was accompanied by double-digit price rises in nearly every district across town.
A big chunk of condos across San Francisco that are available are going to all-cash or absentee buyers. This trend signals the presence of opportunistic investors in the market. Between June and August, all-cash buyers made up 30.2 percent of sales, while absentee buyers were 26.4 percent of buyers. Both of these trends indicate an unstable market.
· San Francisco Condominium Market [Polaris Pacific]
· New SF Shipyard Homes Have Pricing That Starts Under $500K [Curbed SF]